Strategic Industry Analysis

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐃𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐖𝐨𝐧’𝐭 𝐁𝐞 𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐧 “Europe is rearming.” NATO’s 3.5% target. ReArm Europe. Hundreds of billions in new defence spending. But one question is largely missing from the fiscal debate: which regions will actually capture that spending? Defence contracts do not spread evenly. They flow to places that already combine industrial depth with strong innovation systems, the ecosystems capable of delivering aircraft, naval platforms, autonomous systems and advanced electronics. Below 262 EU NUTS2 regions are mapped according to: industrial capacity and innovation readiness. Industrial capacity is measured by the share of employment in NACE C30 (aerospace, shipbuilding, military and space equipment) within manufacturing. Innovation readiness is proxied by the 2025 Regional Innovation Index (relative to the EU27 average), using the regional median as the threshold. Together, these indicators capture where defence spending is most likely to translate into sustained industrial upgrading. Crossing the two produces four regional types. 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞-𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 combine both strengths. Toulouse, Oberbayern, Tübingen, Hamburg, Stockholm, Göteborg, Île-de-France. Their average RII is 121. They are positioned to win the most technologically demanding contracts and absorb spillovers. 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲, 𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡 have industrial depth but weaker innovation systems. Romanian Sud-Est, Polish Podkarpackie, Czech Moravskoslezsko, parts of Italy and Croatia. Their average RII is 75. Without upgrading, they risk being locked into lower-value subcontracting while high-value activities concentrate elsewhere. 𝐈𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐭𝐡, 𝐧𝐨 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 score high on RII but lack C30 presence. They may benefit through dual-use R&D, but not industrial production. 𝐋𝐨𝐰 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬, largely in Southern and Eastern Europe, have neither capacity nor strong innovation systems. For them, the defence surge is economically marginal. The implication is straightforward. Left to market forces, defence investment will reinforce existing spatial concentration. Regions with industrial heritage but weak innovation ecosystems face a strategic choice: invest in upgrading now, or remain peripheral in the next industrial cycle. A Just Transition logic applied to defence would prioritise the orange quadrant. The industrial base exists. The policy question is whether cohesion funds and EU defence instruments can help build the innovation capacity around it, rather than simply amplifying the geography that already dominates.

I’m pleased to share the Kingdom’s success story in the aluminum industry—now one of the key pillars powering sectors such as electric vehicles, aviation, and renewable energy. The journey begins at the Al Baitha mine in Qassim, which produces 5 million tons of bauxite annually. From there, it travels through the Kingdom’s railway network to Ras Al Khair Industrial City, where the transformation process unfolds: • From the alumina refinery with a capacity of 1.8 million tons annually • To the smelter with a capacity of 820,000 tons annually • Then to the casthouse with a capacity of 1 million tons annually • Supported by aluminum scrap recycling furnaces with a capacity of 100,000 tons annually • Integrated with the rolling mill that has a production capacity 460,000 tons annually. Together, these operations form Ma’aden’s fully integrated aluminum complex in Ras Al Khair—the largest of its kind worldwide, taking aluminum production from mine to market. One of its most notable milestones is supplying aluminum sheets to major European automotive manufacturers. The ecosystem extends further, supporting the production of 1 mn tons of downstream Aluminum including: • Extrusion plants serving the Kingdom’s mega construction projects needs of doors and window frames • ⁠Castings plants • Electrical cable factories • Beverages Cans and packaging This strong foundation is delivering high-quality, value-added products, strengthening global confidence in Saudi capabilities, and positioning the Kingdom as a true hub for mining and industry. Beyond industrial impact, it is also creating thousands of jobs and enhancing the competitiveness of the national economy.

It's out! Today, Textile Exchange has published its report, authored by yours truly, exploring how we can reimagine growth in the fashion, apparel and textile industry. This landscape analysis is intended to provide a state of play on this highly complex and contentious topic - outlining why we need to shift from exponential increases in production and consumption volumes based on unchecked resource extraction. Instead it provides a vision for alignment with regenerative economy and post-growth principles, centering a complete reimagining of value creation. Very simply, continued improvements on the product and process level are not going to be enough for the level of change required. What this report shows is the need for reduction as an active strategy, addressing head on the tension that presents. Importantly, it emphasises doing so as necessary to ensure resilience; mitigating future risk due to supply chain instability, resource depletion, overreliance on finite resources and incoming legislation. The report proposes a suite of pathways for change, including eliminating virgin fossil-based synthetics, designing products for longevity and reflecting externalities in their pricing, scaling circular business models, and addressing marketing practices. It further explores new success metrics, mobilising finance and alternative ownership and governance models, as well as the need to ensure a just transition—protecting the rights, livelihoods and well-being of people across the value chain. These pathways will require systemic support to achieve anything close to a post-growth future, with the need for ambitious government policy and collective corporate commitment to get there. The report calls on business leaders, policymakers and financial stakeholders to take immediate, meaningful steps. This isn't simple and it won't be easy. As I say in the press release: “Reimagining growth represents a fundamental paradigm shift, requiring not just incremental adjustments but a complete transformation of how the industry operates. As a challenge of systems change, inherently rooted in complexity, it will demand contributions from all stakeholder groups to achieve a more sustainable and equitable future.” Thank you to all of the incredible people who contributed to this report in consultations, workshops, expert interviews, review processes and ear bending by me. And mostly thank you to Beth Jensen and Claire Bergkamp for their incredible support and leadership on this work over the past three years, and for having the courage of conviction, alongside the Textile Exchange board and wider team, to table this topic and publish something so bold and so crucial for the future of our industry, our planet and the people on it. Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eScK9uyy #postgrowth #sustainablefashion #overconsumption #fashion #textiles 📷  Madeleine Brunnmeier 

🚀 Fighter Jet Manufacturing & Export Capabilities : A Comparative Global Analysis in the wake of the recent news of President Donald Trump awarding Boeing a multi-billion dollar contract to build the US Air Force's most advanced fighter jet, dubbed the F-47. He goes on to describe it as the "most lethal aircraft ever built" and said a version has been secretly flying for the last five years. In the high-stakes world of aerospace & defense, only a select few nations possess the capability to #design, #manufacture, & #export next-generation fighter jets. A summary for comparision: United States: Innovation & Scale The U.S. leads with technological dominance, producing F-22 Raptor, F-35 Lightning II, and F-15EX. Lockheed Martin and Boeing leverage AI, stealth, and network-centric warfare, supported by the world’s largest defense budget. Export reach: Extensive (F-35 in NATO & allies). Russia: Cost-Effective Power Russia’s Su-57 & Su-35 emphasize maneuverability and affordability. While advanced, Western sanctions and funding constraints limit expansion. Export reach: Moderate (India, China, Middle East). China: Rapid Ascent The J-20 & J-31 showcase China’s aggressive leap in stealth and avionics. Heavy investments in AI & indigenous production reduce dependence on foreign tech. Export reach: Growing, but geopolitical concerns persist. France: Independent Excellence Dassault’s Rafale is a highly adaptable multirole jet, balancing technology with diplomatic autonomy. Export reach: Strong (India, UAE, Egypt). Eurofighter Consortium: Shared Strength The Typhoon demonstrates European collaboration, yet faces challenges in rapid innovation due to multi-nation decision-making. Export reach: Moderate (Saudi Arabia, Qatar). India: Rising Challenger HAL’s Tejas marks self-reliance, with The Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) under development. India aims to reduce dependence on imports while enhancing indigenous capabilities. Export reach: Limited but expanding. Japan & South Korea: Next-Gen Entrants Japan’s F-X and Korea’s KF-21 signal new competitors, balancing indigenous tech with U.S. partnerships. Deep tech in aerospace refers to cutting-edge, science-driven innovations that push the boundaries of hardware engineering, material sciences, physics, advanced manufacturing & AI to solve complex challenges of aviation, space, and defense. Unlike incremental improvements, deep tech brings disruptive advancements that redefine possibilities.🚀 The future belongs to the companies & nations investing in the right deep tech problems. #Aerospace #FighterJets #DefenseTech #Innovation #Geopolitics

The UAE Produces Roughly 1 Out Of Every 25 Tonnes Of Aluminium On Earth According to Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA): → The UAE produces 4% of global aluminium → Serving 400+ customers across 50+ countries → Selling 2.83M tonnes in 2025 → Generating AED 31.98B ($8.71B) in revenue For perspective: → Global aluminium production is 74M tonnes annually → UAE population: 11.5M people Yet the UAE still sits inside the top tier of global aluminium production alongside: → China → India → Russia → Canada Very few countries of this size possess this level of industrial relevance globally. Major export markets include: → Turkey → European Union → United States → Japan → Norway The UAE did not inherit an aluminium advantage. It engineered one. Despite lacking: → Large bauxite reserves → A traditional industrial base the UAE built industrial strength through: → Energy infrastructure → Sovereign investment → Ports & logistics → Industrial zones → Global trade connectivity EGA has now produced: → 50+ million tonnes of cast metal since 1979 What took many industrial economies over a century… the UAE compressed into decades. But this story is much bigger than aluminium. Aluminium increasingly sits inside: → AI data centers → Electric vehicles → Renewable energy → Aerospace → Industrial infrastructure The AI race is no longer only about: → Chips → Models → Software It is increasingly about: → Electricity → Cooling → Grid infrastructure → Physical compute systems According to the IEA: → Data center electricity demand could reach 945 TWh by 2030 Meaning: AI increasingly scales through physical infrastructure. AI → Compute → Electricity → Infrastructure → Materials And aluminium sits deeply across that chain. The deeper layer: Aluminium is essentially converted energy. The UAE is no longer exporting only energy. It is increasingly converting energy into: → Industrial products → Infrastructure materials → Global manufacturing value chains Especially as recycled aluminium can require: → 95% less energy than primary production. At the same time, the UAE is reducing dependence on: → Oil volatility → Pure hydrocarbon exports by building: → Industrial exports → Manufacturing capability → Strategic materials relevance And none of this would have been possible without: → Jebel Ali → Khalifa Port → Global shipping corridors Positioned between: → Asia → Europe → Africa the UAE is increasingly becoming: → A trusted industrial hub → A logistics connector → A globally integrated infrastructure platform This is the real UAE story: A nation of just 11.5 million people building systems with global-scale influence. Energy → AI → Logistics → Infrastructure → Manufacturing → Capital One integrated national architecture. Transforming the UAE into one of the world’s most strategically connected economies. If excellence had a flag, it would be the UAE’s.

If You are running an omnichannel brand, one of the most actionable and impactful analysis that you can do with your data is look at the ratio of online to offline sales, benchmarked against your national average. You can cut it by city/state/product/SKU and each cut tells you something different. Start by establishing your national average online/offline ratio. Say it's 45:55. Now look at every city, state, and product model against that baseline. Few scenarios: Scenario 1: Higher-than-average online share (say 80:20 in a city where the national average is 45:55) = distribution problem, not a demand problem Consumers want your product and that is evident from your online sales. To buy your product, they are waiting for delivery and forgoing the in-store experience. Your brand has demand in that market. What needs improvement is availability, visibility and advocacy in retail counters. Every rupee you invest in distribution here has a higher probability of generating returns because demand is pre-validated Scenario 2: Lower-than-average online share (say 10:90 in a state) = one of two things, and you need to figure out which. Either your offline distribution is so strong there that consumers don’t have too many reasons to buy online, which is the healthy version, and you'll see it reflected in strong secondary sales numbers. Or your brand simply don’t have demand/PMF and consumers aren't searching for you online or finding you offline. The way you distinguish between the two: check absolute volume. If the 20:80 market is also a high-absolute-volume market, your offline game is strong and the low online share is a sign of distribution maturity. If it's a low-absolute-volume market with a low online share, you have a brand salience and demand problem. And trying to pressurize Distributors and sales team will not work. In fact it will only lead to more churn which will further reduce the sales volume in that geography. Here the Product and marketing team needs to get to work and solve for product market fit and brand salience in that geography. Now apply the same logic at the model level. If a specific SKU has a 50:50 online/offline split nationally while the rest of your portfolio sits at 30:70, that SKU is under-distributed relative to its demand. Retailers either aren't stocking it, don't know it exists, or aren't being incentivised to push it. This is an assortment and trade marketing problem, not a product problem The beauty of this ratio is its simplicity. You don't need a sophisticated data platform to compute it. You need your e-commerce order data by pincode and your secondary sales data by pincode, both of which any omnichannel brand will always have. One simple table gives you the diagnostic. The ratio doesn't tell you why a market is over- or under-indexed. But it tells you where to look, and whether the problem is distribution, brand, or product. And that's usually enough to make the next decision.

A great conversation with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), highlighted 3 themes shaping the future of energy: • Faster electrification • More complex grids • Rising pressure on electricity costs Electrification is scaling now. Systems are shifting from predictable and linear to dynamic, decentralized, and multidirectional. Acceleration alone is not enough. It must be matched with resilience. New demand from data centers and EVs, combined with rapid growth in distributed generation like rooftop solar, is adding significant complexity. One priority stood out: stability. Reliable and uninterrupted power is essential for economies, industry, and daily life. Affordability is equally critical. Energy costs are becoming more volatile. For electrification to grow sustainably, electricity must remain accessible and competitively priced. Cost drives long‑term adoption. These issues are interconnected. Progress in electrification depends on resilience, and both depend on affordability. The good news: the technologies to address this are already available: ✔️ Flexible, intelligent grids ✔️ AI‑enabled energy management ✔️ Advanced power distribution that turns complexity into operational advantage Now is the time to treat energy not only as a cost but as a strategic asset for competitiveness, sustainability, and growth. The priority ahead is clear: scale these solutions with speed and confidence to meet the demands of the new energy landscape. #FredsVoice #AdvancingEnergyTech

The modernization of the M113 Armored Personnel Carrier (VBTP) with the REMAX Remotely Controlled Weapons System (SARC) is an example of how collaboration between Brazilian industry and foreign companies can drive innovation and enhance the capabilities of the Brazilian Armed Forces, especially the Brazilian Army. This initiative, which extends the service life of a strategic asset and increases its combat effectiveness, serves as an invitation for international companies to bring their solutions to the Brazilian market. The integration of REMAX, developed domestically by ARES Aeroespacial e Defesa, demonstrates Brazil's commitment to technological sovereignty. The system increases operator safety, allowing the machine gun to be controlled from inside the vehicle, and improves accuracy through its advanced optical and thermal capabilities. The project highlights the ongoing need to modernize the Brazilian Army's fleet and systems, creating opportunities for international collaboration in areas such as sensor systems, communications, materials and components, as well as training and simulation. Brazil presents itself as an attractive market for the foreign defense industry, with one of the largest defense budgets in Latin America and a long-term plan to re-equip its Armed Forces. The country values technology transfer and the strengthening of its Defense Industrial Base (DIB), favoring strategic partnerships. For interested foreign companies, successful strategies include forming partnerships with Brazilian industry, understanding local needs, engaging with high-ranking military leaders, and presenting innovative and proven solutions. Participation in defense trade shows and a commitment to knowledge transfer are seen as competitive advantages. The article also highlights the importance of a defense business development specialist to facilitate these partnerships and align with the Army's priorities. It specifically calls on manufacturers of military vehicles, parts, and onboard equipment to present their portfolios, with collaboration models that include licensed manufacturing, joint ventures for co-development, and partnerships for maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO). In short, the M113 REMAX project illustrates the innovation capacity of the Brazilian defense industry and signals the country's openness to new technologies and strategic partnerships to strengthen its defense capabilities, representing an opportunity for foreign companies to contribute to Brazil's military modernization. Paulo Dominonni

Last month, GOI introduced a fantastic set of reforms to help startups secure more Defense contracts. Our Defense Budget is ~₹6.8 Lakh crore out of which approx. ₹1 Lakh crore is spent on operations, maintenance & sustenance (called ”Revenue”) i.e. to keep existing equipment in battle ready state. The updated 2025 version of the Defense Procurement Manual (DPM) replaces the 2009 version; these guidelines cover procurement of spare parts, consumables, software, system upgrades & (any) services. There are 4 key provisions which stand to benefit non-PSU contractors who bid for these Revenue contracts: (1) Removal of the DPSU NOC requirement - catalyst for competition & makes it easier for private contractors to apply (2) Reduction in Liquidated Damage (LD) for experimental projects - catalyst for R&D & private contractors would now be willing to take on experimental project work (3) 15% “Growth of Work” cushion - much needed; this means that the tender process does NOT need to be re-run for a few % deviation in costs (4) Delegation of power to CFAs (Competent Financial Authority) - often, the bottleneck in procurement is approval from above which this reform fixes This reform will provide a massive tailwind to India’s private A&D industry - especially for Indian startups & non-PSU contractors in MRO, components & other ancillaries. 👍 In the short term - a thousand flowers will bloom. But, the learning from the West will hold true in the long term - a select few will emerge as major Primes (cutting across domains) e.g. Raytheon Corp, Lockheed Martin etc The short term momentum will come from indigenization & winning domestic contracts; the long term moat can be created only through exports i.e. winning global contracts through superior technical capability. This is exact the 2047 goal taken by the Govt - to 10X our Defense exports from ₹26K crore today to ₹2.6L crore - ambitious, but small steps are underway 😄 #india #defense

🇺🇦 Innovation Under Fire What’s happening off the coast of Ukraine should make every Western defence planner sit up. Ukrainian naval drones didn’t just adapt to a threat, they actually changed the behaviour of the enemy. Russian helicopters were once a critical counter to Ukraine’s maritime drones. They hunted them, disrupted them and controlled the battlespace. So Ukraine did something deceptively simple and strategically profound. They armed the drones with surface-to-air missiles. Result? Russian helicopters now avoid them entirely, recognising they’ve become easy targets. The so what? This isn’t about a new platform. It’s about innovation velocity beating legacy doctrine. Why this matters for future military strategy 👉 Drones are no longer disposable. These naval drones aren’t just ISR or kamikaze assets, they are multi-role, survivable, decision-shaping systems. Once a drone can credibly threaten manned aircraft, the cost-exchange ratio collapses in its favour. 👉 Behavioural deterrence beats attrition. Ukraine didn’t need to destroy every helicopter. It only needed to change Russian risk calculus. The real win wasn’t the kill, it was forcing the enemy to withdraw capability. 👉 Cross-domain convergence is the future. Sea platforms threatening air assets. Small systems dictating big-platform behaviour. This is the erosion of traditional domain boundaries, and it’s accelerating. 👉 Speed outperforms scale. This wasn’t a decade-long procurement programme. It was rapid iteration at the tactical edge, driven by operators, not committees. The side that learns fastest now wins first. 👉 Western militaries should be uncomfortable. If low-cost drones can deny helicopters today, what denies, • Amphibious landings tomorrow? • Carrier air operations next? • Littoral resupply routes in NATO theatres? Ukraine is stress-testing the future of warfare in real time, while much of the West is still debating requirements documents. This is innovation born of necessity, but it’s also a warning. The next military advantage won’t come from the biggest platforms or the longest programmes. It will come from, Fast thinkers, Fast builders and Fast learners. Those who ignore that lesson will find their helicopters and doctrines grounded. As ever, this isn’t doctrine, It’s a debate, and debate is how innovation starts. https://lnkd.in/eDBSstQ6 #Gwilly #DefenceInnovation #FutureWarfare #Drones #MilitaryStrategy #Ukraine #InnovationUnderFire