Strategic Decision Making

In 2011, the Amazon Appstore failed on launch and Jeff Bezos was furious. It was my fault, and I handled one aspect of recovery so poorly that one of my engineers quit. I still regret it 14 years later. Please learn from my mistake. The main lesson is that when you are leading through a crisis, it can feel like it is all about you. It isn’t. It is about: 1) Solving the problem 2) Guiding your team through it The product issue was that there were some pretty simple bugs, and we solved those problem well enough that I was eventually promoted. Where I failed was in guiding my team through the crisis. My leadership miss was that I neglected to encourage and support the engineer who had written the bad code. He did a great job stepping up and supporting the effort to fix the problem, but shortly afterward, he resigned. During the crisis, I failed to make clear to him that we did not blame him for the launch failure despite the bugs. I imagine that left room for him to think we blamed him or that he didn’t belong. It is also possible that others did blame him directly and that I was too caught up in the crisis to realize it. Both instances were my responsibility as the leader of the team. His resignation taught me a valuable lesson about leading through a crisis: No matter how bad the situation is, your team must be your first priority. If you make them feel safe, they will move heaven and earth to fix the problem. If you don’t, they may still fix the problem, but the team itself will never be the same. As a leader, here is how you can give them what they need: 1) Take the blame and do not allow others to be blamed. In some bug cases after this we did not release the name of the engineer outside the team in order to protect them from judgment or blame. 2) Separate fixing the problem from figuring out why it happened. Once the problem is fixed, you can focus on root-causing. This lowers the risk of searching for answers getting confused with searching for someone to blame. 3) Realize that anyone involved in the problem already feels bad. High performers know when they have fallen short and let their team down. As a leader you have to show them the path to growth and success after the crisis. They do not need to be beaten up on- they have taken care of that themselves. 4) See crises and problems as growth opportunities, not personal flaws. Your team comes with you in a crisis whether you like it or not, so you might as well come out stronger on the other side. As a leader, the responsibility for a crisis is yours in two ways: The problem itself and the effect it has on the future of the team. Don’t get too caught up in the first to think about the second. Readers- Has your team survived a crisis? How did you handle it?

Putting a price on sustainability can help - and hurt! In our new comment for 'Nature Sustainability' we therefore propose eight guiding principles which ensure that valuation serves sustainability rather than distort it. Translating social and environmental effects (e.g., carbon emissions or employee well-being) into financial terms holds promise: it can boost transparency, align sustainability with financial decision-making, and guide resource allocation. But it also carries many risks, from ethical concerns and oversimplification to greenwashing and policy displacement. Our eight principles - spanning ethics, the strategic design of valuation, and information integrity - help to navigate through this minefield. 👉 The principles are a reminder that the goal is not to reduce sustainability to money, but to make it actionable without losing its complexity, plurality, or intrinsic value. Thanks to the brilliant team of co-authors for pushing this agenda! Laura Marie Edinger-Schons, Judith Stroehle, Ali Aslan Gümüsay, Florian Berg, Marya Hill-Popper Besharov, Dror Etzion, Karim Harji, Nien-hê Hsieh, Andrew King, Giovanna Michelon, Juliane Reinecke, Florian Hoos. === Link: https://lnkd.in/d_FzBrCX SSRN version (open): https://lnkd.in/dJE2UdyK

Workforce planning has always been an incredibly complex and difficult task. Despite valiant efforts to improve these models, they have remained relatively static and simplistic, relying predominantly on small teams crunching data or on predictions from the hiring manager community. In an ideal world, we would shift from a static, once-a-year exercise to a dynamic, more proactive model. We would stop reacting to what's happening now and start anticipating what's likely to happen next. Last week, I had the pleasure of spending time with our enterprise data and analytics team, a group that services over 800 customers. The most exciting topic we discussed was three pilots we're running with customers right now that aim to make this a reality: using a digital twin for work planning. It works by connecting vast amounts of external market data with a company's many internal data sources, some they typically wouldn't consider, such as ERP, CRM (sales), LMS, and Time and Attendance systems. This allows us to run scenarios and model future talent needs. Here’s a concrete example: By analyzing Salesforce, HRIS, and ATS data, we can predict that when multiple prospect opportunities reach a specific stage in our customer’s sales cycle, there is a high likelihood of winning at least one of them. We can then analyze the consistent skill sets across all of those prospect opportunities, allowing us to confidently and proactively start a recruitment process for those skills. The goal being that we have candidates at the final stages of the process, before an official requisition has been raised, positively impacting time to hire. We’ve also been able to replicate a similar model based on website sales activity. The question to ask is: what data is generated in what system that allows you to get ahead of the hiring process today. 

Good decisions die in messy docs. If you want clarity and speed, compress it. One page. Five sections. No fluff. 1. Context – Why we’re here and what’s at stake. 2. Options – The real alternatives we considered. 3. Risk – Trade-offs, uncertainties, and what could break. 4. Choice – The decision, and the “why” behind it. 5. Follow-Ups – Who owns what, and by when. This format does 3 things well: Forces clear thinking. Speeds alignment. Leaves a record for future you. If your team debates endlessly or revisits decisions over and over, try the one-page memo for your next meeting. You’ll feel the difference.

I was recently speaking to someone about a manager who treats every issue, big or small, like a crisis. It reminded me of something I learnt early in my career from my manager: "when pressure is high, a leader’s first job is not to make the room more anxious." Because people notice. Very quickly. A few things I have seen the best leaders do in a crisis: -> They separate signal from noise: Not everything loud is important. They focus the team on what will actually change the outcome. -> They regulate before they respond: They do not react at the speed of the panic. They pause, steady themselves, and then lead. -> They are clear about facts, gaps, and next steps: What do we know? What do we not know? What happens now? Clarity calms. -> They create ownership quickly: Who is doing what, by when, and how updates will happen. Unclear accountability only increases stress. -> They acknowledge emotion without amplifying it: They do not minimise pressure. But they do not dramatise it either. To me, that is also what authentic leadership looks like in a crisis: not pretending to have all the answers, but being honest, grounded, and steady enough for others to think clearly. Pressure does not create leadership maturity. It reveals it. What have you seen the best leaders do in a crisis?

Sustainability Maturity Self-Assessment 🌎 Understanding the level of sustainability integration within an organization requires structured analysis across multiple operational dimensions. Moving beyond isolated initiatives, this approach provides a clearer view of internal alignment and areas requiring systemic improvement. Disclosure practices are a key area of focus. Integrated reporting that connects sustainability and financial data, alignment with frameworks such as TCFD, and preparation for new regulatory requirements indicate a higher level of maturity. Effective organizations establish clear sustainability targets. These targets are measurable, time bound, and supported by transition plans and internal accountability. They serve as reference points for strategic planning and operational execution. Governance is another critical pillar. The presence of formal structures, leadership ownership, and cross departmental coordination reflects whether sustainability is embedded into core decision making processes. Board oversight acts as a signal of institutional prioritization. Regular engagement, monitoring through defined indicators, and integration into enterprise risk management processes are all essential components. Data quality underpins all sustainability decisions. Organizations are evaluated based on their ability to collect, estimate, and validate key metrics, particularly emissions data aligned with recognized methodologies. Value chain visibility expands the lens beyond internal operations. The ability to monitor sustainability performance upstream and downstream indicates a broader understanding of impact and risk exposure. Procurement strategies also reflect the depth of integration. When sustainability criteria shape supplier selection and guide collaborative initiatives, procurement becomes a tool for driving environmental and social outcomes. This type of evaluation does not produce a static score. Instead, it highlights capability gaps, supports internal benchmarking, and informs priorities for systems level improvements aligned with strategic sustainability objectives. #sustainability #sustainable #esg #business

We can’t predict the future. But we can approach it more systematically. That’s where futures thinking (or strategic foresight) comes in. And it’s a critical part of good strategic design. You’ll often hear futurists say: “Foresight precedes strategy.” That’s only true if we treat strategy as a fixed plan, built in a linear way. When we instead see strategy as a testable hypothesis, futures thinking becomes more powerful. The two start to shape each other. One of the hardest parts of futures work is that it asks us to question our own values and beliefs. At its best, it creates a scaffold that helps people think the unthinkable. Here’s how futures thinking shows up in my strategic design practice. FRAMING AND SCOPING Getting alignment early matters. Futures tools can be used for different challenges, so framing the right question is essential. Clear scope and shared intent give the work its best chance of success. SCANNING Often called horizon scanning. This is where we lift our gaze and look for weak signals of change. These early signs can point to larger shifts ahead. They form the raw material for scenarios, alongside drivers of change and, to a lesser extent, trends. UNDERSTANDING IMPACT Not all signals matter equally. We explore which ones could have the biggest impact, or where uncertainty is highest. Tools like impact wheels and probability–impact matrices help build shared perspectives and increase situational awareness. SCENARIOS Scenarios turn signals into stories about alternate futures. They help us test assumptions, surface risks, and spot opportunities. Importantly, they let us rehearse decisions before we have to make them. STRATEGY FORMULATION In a linear process, strategy is the end point. In a complex world, that rarely works. Rather than a single plan, I’m interested in strategy as a system. New information about the future feeds into decisions in regular cycles, not as a one-off exercise. This is only a personal snapshot. Each stage has more depth and nuance, and many practitioners would break this into more steps. Because I also work with a complexity lens, I’m less interested in futures as a way to design an ideal future and “close the gap”. For me, the real value of futures thinking is its ability to: - Broaden what we notice - Challenge hidden assumptions - Build resilience in strategic decision-making Futures thinking isn’t a silver bullet. But its value grows when it’s used alongside other complementary practices. It expands what we can imagine, while understanding complex adaptive systems helps us respond to what’s emerging in the present. #StrategicDesign #FuturesThinking #Strategy #DesignThinking #StrategicForesight

That candidate you interviewed on Monday? They’ve been checking their phone all week. Replaying every answer they gave you. Telling their family about “the perfect role.” Even planning the commute to your office. Now it’s Friday and they’re about to spend the weekend wondering where they stand. Here’s what happens after an interview when there’s no update: Constant phone checking Overthinking every moment Questions from family and friends Days of unnecessary anxiety In August, delays are even worse: Hiring managers are on holiday. Decision-makers are hard to pin down. That “quick decision” can easily become a 3-week wait. If you’re a recruiter or hiring manager: Pick up the phone. It takes three minutes to say: “You’re moving forward, details Monday.” “You did well, but we need more X experience.” “We’re still interviewing, you’re in contention.” The impact: Candidates can actually enjoy their weekend Even rejections feel better with clarity Your reputation and your company’s improve You build trust for future hiring It’s a small action that makes a big difference. Before you log off today, make the calls.

Every sales leader I talk to at the moment is struggling with some version of the same issue. The symptoms are different, but the underlying cause is the same. - Sales cycles elongating - Deal slippage - Prospects not showing up to meetings - An uptick in ghosting - Poor forecast accuracy - A drop in deal volumes - A drop in conversion rates What's actually happening out there in Buyer land? I've been delivering win-loss reviews for B2B companies around the world since 2011 and I'm seeing buyer behaviours I've never observed before... Let me break down some of them quickly for you and share some guidance on how to use these lessons to your advantage: Trend #1: Risk has jumped up the decision tree in order of importance, to the very top of the list for many clients, even more so when it's a new vendor. Action: Go deeper on risk in your discovery conversations, recognise that risk is both organisational and personal...find ways to better manage, mitigate and share risk with your clients...Be the low risk option. Trend #2: Value for Money, Responsiveness and Cost are consistently selected as the most important decision criteria by many clients. Action: Responsiveness should be an easy one to get right, but many sellers are stretched too thin right now...do less, but do it better. Trend #3: Change in Strategic Direction is the most frequently cited reason for customers coming to market for a new solution at the moment. Action: Try to reverse engineer this reason, to understanding what caused this change in direction and what it actually means for the business. These are your keys to the kingdom, when building a rock solid business case. Trend #4: Feedback from Peers and Colleagues has emerged as the most trusted information source for almost all respondents. Action: Case studies and customer references are losing their luster...find ways to tap into the trust which prospective clients have in their own peer network, as a way to unlock deeper connections and build trust. Trend #5: Customers are demanding more detail in the proposal documents, tender responses and business cases which they are receiving. Action: Put in the work, avoid the cookie-cutter responses, find your win themes and weave them in, share the detail they need to make an informed decision. I haven't got a crystal ball, so I can't tell you if/when the pendulum will swing back the other way, from a buyer behaviour perspective. What I can tell you with a high degree of certainty is that prospective customers have raised the bar, in terms of their expectations from their vendor partners. It's our job now to to elevate the preparation, patience and professionalism of B2B sellers everywhere, to meet these changing needs and maintain our relevance to the customers we serve.

Deputy's 2025 Big Shift report explores how the next generation of workers is transforming the world of hourly work. Based on millions of real-world shift data points, the research uncovers key trends shaping the future of work — from flexible scheduling to the rise of AI. Here are the top insights: Rise of Micro-Shifts: Short, flexible shifts (six hours or less) are gaining popularity, especially in hospitality and service industries, accommodating workers like students and caregivers seeking balance. Gen Z's Influence: As the largest segment of the hourly workforce, Gen Z is driving demand for flexible scheduling and work-life integration, prompting businesses to adapt to attract and retain talent. AI Integration: Artificial intelligence is enhancing shift work by optimizing scheduling and improving work-life balance, rather than replacing jobs. Poly-Employment Trend: Approximately 20% of shift workers hold multiple jobs, with young women, particularly in hospitality and healthcare, leading this trend to manage cost-of-living pressures. Gender Disparities: Women dominate shift work but often occupy lower-paying service roles. However, there's a growing presence of women in traditionally male-dominated fields like logistics. Generational Shift: Generation Alpha began entering the workforce in 2024 and is projected to surpass Gen Z by 2038, indicating ongoing evolution in workforce demographics. These findings are based on an analysis of over 278 million hours worked across 41 million shifts by more than 429,000 shift workers, conducted in collaboration with labor economist Dr. Shashi Karunanethy.